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5 war possibilities for China, Taiwan, & U.S. involvement

China seems to be on the offensive, thanks to Nancy Pelosi’s pre-announced trip to Taiwan. Glenn and Jason Buttrill, chief researcher for The Glenn Beck Program, war-game five possible scenarios between the two Asian nations. They discuss whether or not the U.S. is ‘obligated’ to back Taiwan, and what America’s foreign policy strategy has been regarding this conflict for decades. Either way, Glenn says, the world continues to destabilize and NOW is the time to pray for our country.

TranscriptBelow is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: I'm 18 years old. I'm working at WPGC in Washington, DC. And I can see the light on top of the Washington monument. So I'm at ground zero. Ronald Reagan is in office. And there's something -- I don't remember what it was. But a confrontation with the Soviet Union. And it was really serious. And I remember keeping the door to the teletype in my studio open. Teletype is how we used to get the news. And it had bells on it. And a ten-bell event would be nuclear war. And I kept that propped open, so I could hear those bells and count the bells. And we got as high as I think six bells. And I would count them. Because I knew. And I thought, I'm at ground zero. This could be over in ten minutes. I haven't felt that way, really until this administration. You know, even after September 11th, I remember feeling on September 11th. Boy, I don't know what they're going to do. But it wasn't a fear of nuclear war or all out war, over the whole world. We're approaching that kind of -- of place. We now have -- do we have the live footage? This is -- they're tracking Nancy Pelosi's plane. We can show it to you. She's at about 10,000 feet. Headed towards Taiwan. She has avoided the restricted airspace over the South China Sea. However, China has just closed the airspace above the Taiwan strait. And they are -- they're at least flexing their muscles. If you look at what China is sending out, online. You are seeing military being moved. You have the aircraft carriers from China, moving out of their home ports. And headed towards Taiwan. I don't know what's going to happen. We have a guy who actually is, I mean, somewhat of kind of an expert on this area. Working for us. He's our chief researcher. And head writer for the Glenn Beck Program. Jason Buttrill. Hello, Jason. How are you?

JASON: Hey, Glenn. Doing good.

GLENN: So, Jason, help me out on -- how serious is this, with China, do you think?

JASON: I think it's very serious. Especially considering the symbolic meaning of Taiwan. Taiwan is very, very symbolic to the Chinese/Communist Party. This has been an issue since, you know, the communists took over, really. So this is probably one of the most crazy, ambiguous treaties we've ever had. The Taiwan relations act. The most ambiguous thing ever. Which makes Kirby's remarks yesterday, kind of odd to come out and say, we don't support independents so publicly. I mean, I've read the Taiwan relations act, cover to cover. The ambiguity. Just saying it's ambiguous is even an understatement. It's the equivalent of one of the most confusing Christopher Nolan movies. Take Inception. Take Interstellar. Take Tenants. And then have 30 different people try to describe what it actually means. I actually think it -- that's basically what we're talking about here.

GLENN: So this is -- Taiwan and China are at war with each other. It's a civil war. And it happened in the 1950s. So this has been going back and forth from the 1950s. But it is -- it's coming to a head, and that's because as China rises in power, they think the odds are that they can take the United States of America. I don't think that's possible yet. But I think we're maybe five years. Two to five years away from they believe actually being able to take Taiwan. And call our bluff. Or just fight the war. You think that's accurate?

JASON: No. Absolutely. China sees Taiwan like they see Hong Kong. When they made the deal with Hong Kong. They say, oh, China has no right to do this. It is supposed to be two systems in one country. Yeah, but it was in that agreement, that China would one day take control, and it would be one system. People usually leave that part out. They just decided to accelerate their plans. They see Taiwan as one China. And they believe it's rightfully theirs. And their plan is to always take it. They just don't have the military capabilities. Now, moving towards what we're seeing now. The thing that would always tip us off. And the in Taiwan relations act. We said, if you try to coerce militarily, to try to change Taiwan and take it. We will respond. And President Reagan, I believe in 1980, and 1982. Reassured after the 1972 Taiwan act. Reassured, hey. We're still giving you weapons. We're still coming to your definition. So this is a very, very old agreement that they had. And, yes, we will go and respond. But the thing that's always kept the things kind of open. And that we can see what's going on in the future. Is that it would take a tremendous Chinese military buildup, to be put in place, before we would -- the actual action. We would see it, the buildup. We would go and respond to it. What Pelosi has done. And let's put this into context. The Speaker of the House has just undermined her presidents -- in the same party. His foreign the policy. She's taken it on herself, to manipulate foreign policy. It's absolutely unprecedented. She has no right to do this. It's not under the duties of the Speaker of the House. But her actions are allowing this military buildup to happen. It's accelerating an already accelerated plan, that we've seen with China and Hong Kong.

GLENN: I tell you, it is truly frightening. And, by the way, the reason why Taiwan is important to the United States. Is if Taiwan falls, we then are pretty much out of Asia. The next country to fall would be New Zealand and Australia. And China would just overrun all of that hemisphere. And between Russia and China -- you know, that would be a very difficult match for us to even stand shoulder to shoulder with. Okay. So let me give you a couple of scenarios. And I want to hear what you think are the best scenarios. These are five different scenarios that have been put together by a Taiwanese based researcher. So the first one, minimalist approach. The people's army occupies Jemen or Matsu (phonetic) islands, as well as Taiwan's islands in the South China Sea. Maybe even the (inaudible) islands. They declare part or all of the Taiwan Strait, a no-go zone. They just did that. And they -- give it a no-go zone to all military shipping. This would be fairly easy, et cetera, et cetera. And it would not overcommit them. It would just be a step up. Scenario number two. Hybrid warfare. Some sort of partial naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan, intended to interfere with the economy.

Combined with stepped up harassments, such as direct flyovers, which they did last night while we were all sleeping. Incursions into maritime space, by China's military. They might also have cyber attacks, which they just did, about two hours before Pelosi's plane was taking off. Scenario number three. A serious attack, but no invasion. This would involve air and sea warfare. No boots on the ground. Full airline and Naval blockade. Protracted set of naval and aerial battles, designed to degrade Taiwan's military, combined with ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Scenario number four. A real, actual invasion. Scenario number five. Short of a nuclear attack, would be the worst case. Full air and sea blockade. Massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Cyber attack. Aggressive naval and ariel attacks. And boots on the ground. I don't think that one is even possible right now. But maybe it is. Which one -- or do you have another scenario that you think is more likely to come from this?

JASON: So to point out, I think every single one of those scenarios, would break the Taiwan Relations Act, which would require an American response. So if they're thinking about doing any of those, they're ready for war. Just really quick, if I could remember all of them. The first one, occupying some of those islands in the Air Defense Zone. We already -- occupying any of those islands, including the Pengu Islands. Those are part of the Peskador (phonetic) Islands, which is specifically named, in the Taiwan Relations Act, as part of Taiwan. So that's a huge -- that's a huge, you know -- we're getting involved, basically. If they do that.

GLENN: That is -- or that is a progressive way for China to do it. Where they're not taking all of it. They're just moving in. And then like Republicans always do. You just back up. Okay. Well, that's okay. Okay. Well, we'll get it on the next boat. That's a progressive tactic. And America would probably not go to war, over something like that. I would hope.

STU: Yeah. We should point out real quick, Nancy Pelosi has just landed in Taiwan. So that's -- just watched it live here. As it -- so whatever game is being played, is going to be played.

GLENN: So bizarre.

JASON: The other scenarios pretty much -- many of them involved economic hybrid warfare, or blockades. Economic hybrid warfare was not mentioned back then in the Taiwan relations act. I would put that in the same category as blockade. That's also mentioned. So if any of those things happen, we are then, according to the texts, obligated to respond. So we're responding anyway.

GLENN: If they pretty much do anything. Even the lightest, most minimal approach, they would be in violation of this act. Our treaty, if you will. And it puts us, you know, into action. And calls our bluff.

I am terrified what the Biden administration would do. Because the Biden administration is absolutely toothless. We have no allies. What we've done in Russia has only benefited Russia and hurt everyone else. I think these guys could overreact. And do something very provocative, that in the end, will just destroy us. What should be our response, Jason.

JASON: Oh, gosh. Likable I said, this is such a complicated issue. It's so -- I hate to use the word again, ambiguous. Let me just go to this point. I think that -- I don't think China will do any of those things. I think China will use this as an excuse to do a massive military buildup. That's what I think. And we already saw --

GLENN: Massive military exercise.

JASON: Massive military exercise. Oh, we're just going to position all these things here. We're going to put all these boats here. We're going to keep these aircraft carriers over here. That way, it puts us off balance on, we don't know how far we've escalated their time line. That's why I think, this is such a horrible -- not only dangerous, but horrible move by Nancy Pelosi in doing this. Is you -- you're bringing right to the surface, what we think we have ten years to plan for. Or prepare for. That's what I think will happen. I think we'll see a lot more military buildup in that area. It will be hard to know when they actually attack. Now, if they do any of those things. I think they're obligated to respond in some way. I'll leave it up to them. To decide, what is -- how to balance it all out. They're obviously not the ones right now, in charge to do that. But what -- we're signaling to everyone else in the region, that, hey, the time of you being able to count us. That's over now. So, yeah. Yeah.

GLENN: I will tell you, Jason, thank you so much for your analysis and, of course, we'll be watching it. And if you -- if you watch and see some things, let me know and tweet it out today. And Facebook post. Because this is something that is ongoing. Thank you, Jason. For your help. I will tell you, that now is the time to pray for your country. And let me just remind you. The Republicans always get the warmonger label. Let's just say that the Republicans have changing on war. We've learned our lessons, I think. And Donald Trump, the world was at peace. Look at how fast that has deteriorated. We could be at -- in a proxy war, with both Russia and China. By tomorrow! It's insanity.


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